Tags
2015 Climate Change Paris Agreement, 2050 Net-Zero Emissions Scenario (NZE), Clean energy future, Fossil fuel industry, International Energy Agency (IEA), Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector
Some promises are made in good faith. Then, as often happens in our lives, another commitment that we consider more important or urgent sabotages our best intentions. This appears to be the case with pledges made by several of the 196 countries at the 2015 Climate Change Paris Agreement to lower their greenhouse gas emissions. What is alarming is that existing pledges, even if fully honored, fall short of attaining global net zero emissions by 2050. If we the people of Earth are to maintain habitable conditions for our species, we must get our priorities straight.
On May 18, 2021, the International Energy Agency (IEA), made up of 30 member countries and 8 association countries committed to shaping a secure and sustainable energy future for Earth’s inhabitants, released a special report that is intended to put us on track. Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector is a comprehensive study of the way forward to a global Net-Zero Emissions Scenario (NZE) by 2050 with an emphasis on economic growth for all.
With just 29 years left for us to catch up, after decades on the path to planetary ruin, the NZE roadmap is no stroll along the beach or jog in the park. It calls for vast amounts of investment, innovation, implementation of skillful policy design, technology deployment, infrastructure building, international cooperation, and much more across all sectors. World War NZE 2050. A war for human survival. Success depends upon an unprecedented level of international cooperation.
What is important with the IEA NZE 2050 roadmap, in my view, is that the fossil fuel industry will lose its stranglehold on national and global economic policies. The roadmap acknowledges what climate scientists have been warning us for decades about the danger of fossil fuels. The IEA special report makes clear that the energy sector holds the key to averting the worst effects of climate change because it holds responsibility for around three-quarters of greenhouse gas emissions. To achieve global net zero emissions by 2050 demands immediate and massive deployment of all available clean and efficient energy technologies. The good news is that these technologies already exist. Some, like solar and wind power energy, must be scaled up by four times the levels set in 2020. Others, like advanced batteries and hydrogen electrolysers, must be made available on the market for widespread use.
The energy sector in the NZE 2050 roadmap is based largely on renewable energy. The use of fossil fuels plummet from almost four-fifths of current total energy supply to slightly over one-fifth by 2050. While investments in new fossil fuel supply dry up, opportunities arise in generating clean energy, network infrastructure, and end-use sectors. By 2030, global economic growth soars with the injection of US$5 trillion in clean energy investments.
The decline of the fossil fuel industry disrupts the countries and companies that produce these fuels. Workers in the industry are hard hit. Around 5 million workers lose their jobs, many of which are well-paying jobs. But all is not bleak. The transition to net zero will create 14 million new jobs by 2030. Consumption of more efficient appliances, electric and fuel cell vehicles, retrofitted and energy-efficient homes and commercial buildings will require a further 16 million workers. Securing these jobs will require retraining and relocating to another city, region, or state—a difficult prospect for older workers and those nearing retirement.
World War NZE 2050 will also impact our lives in other ways, especially those of us who live in urban centers and advanced economies. To reduce our individual carbon emissions, we must replace our car trips with walking, cycling, or public transport. It means avoiding long-distance air travel for business and leisure. Changing our behavior is achievable, as demonstrated by the global response to the Covid-19 pandemic. The fractures revealed in our response must be addressed.
We humans tend to cling to the known and familiar that give us a sense of security and control in our lives. Embracing the IEA NZE 2050 roadmap demands that we not only change our individual behavior, but also the way we view ourselves as a species on a shared planet.
To read a summary of the IEA special report, check out their press release.
Laleh Chini said:
Oh my God, what a world.🥺
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Yeah, Another Blogger said:
In my view, the continuous growth of the human population is a major driving force of climate change and other bad problems. Doesn’t seem like this ever will be addressed.
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Rosaliene Bacchus said:
It appears that all the uncertainties of modern life are already taking their toll on population growth in several countries. Check out this article published today: https://www.btimesonline.com/articles/149465/20210524/world-sees-signs-of-rapid-population-decline-may-stress-economy.htm
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bruce thomas witzel said:
Yes … a part of the problem for sure… though social equality and less conspicuous over consumption by those of us who don’t struggle for mere survival would go a long way to help us all solve the rising crises. Thanks for posting this Roasliene.. .
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Rosaliene Bacchus said:
You’re welcome, Bruce. For sure, social inequality and over-consumption also need to be addressed. The IEA focuses on energy consumption in their NZE 2050 roadmap, but numerous factors have led us to this precipitous moment in human history that must be addressed at the same time.
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bruce thomas witzel said:
I react too quick Rosaliene when I hear people says population is THE problem. It is my understanding that in the past IEA has been quite conservative on many of their estimates, so when they now raise the alarm I think it even more of a reason to take action.
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Rosaliene Bacchus said:
Bruce, I think that the IEA has now realized that the window for taking action is fast closing. Have you seen the news report on Wednesday about the case heard in a Dutch court against Shell?
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/dutch-court-rule-case-targeting-shells-climate-strategy-2021-05-25/
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jfwknifton said:
For me, the problem will be the countries whose arrogance means that they will do what they think is best for them, rather than what is best for the planet.
Covid should have taught us that Mother Nature can strike back hard and she doesn’t care about the billions of violent, stupid fools who infest the planet and who ruin everything they come into contact with.
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Rosaliene Bacchus said:
John, when it comes to international cooperation, our response to the Covid-19 pandemic demonstrates that we’ve got a long way to go.
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Denzil said:
The more or less globally rapid response to COVID gives hope that we could implement these measures with the speed needed. And the fact that the US is back on the ball is another cause for optimism. But … no, I’ll just make two positive comments and leave it at that!
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Rosaliene Bacchus said:
Denzil, thanks for sharing. There is much cause for optimism. We’ve got to let go of entrenched beliefs and political differences that divide us and work together to put the roadmap into action. Now that the IEA is pushing for a speedy transition to clean energy supply, I’ll be watching to see if America’s opposition party will change its stance against the administration’s infrastructure plan.
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Denzil said:
You talk sense as always Rosaliene
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derrickjknight said:
‘We humans tend to cling to the known and familiar that give us a sense of security and control in our lives. Embracing the IEA NZE 2050 roadmap demands that we not only change our individual behavior, but also the way we view ourselves as a species on a shared planet.’
The pandemic has taught us a big lesson about change. I do hope we have learned.
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Rosaliene Bacchus said:
It is my hope, too, Derrick. The pandemic is just a warning of worse yet to come if we don’t get our act together.
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derrickjknight said:
Agreed
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winteroseca said:
I had a professor who once said “Good intention does not always translate to good policy.” You can definitely see that with climate agreements sometimes. I agree that it’s normal to cling to familiarity as well. I also wonder if there is fear behind clinging to familiarity. Living in Alberta for a while, I learned that before the oil and gas industry took over, Alberta was, by far, the poorest province in Canada. No one wants to go back to that, but it translates in a lot of backwards attitudes. I kid you not, I sometimes see signs, souvenirs and bumper stickers that say, “I Heart Oil and Gas” or “I Heart Alberta Oil”. Being an environmentalist in an oil and gas town makes you realize what a grip those companies have on the area. I do see things changing, but it’s going to take a while, which is time we don’t have
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Rosaliene Bacchus said:
Winteroseca, the oil and gas companies have so far maintained a stranglehold on producing regions and countries worldwide. Without continued investments, they will go out of business. Will this change occur fast enough is the big question.
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winteroseca said:
For sure! Follow the money. Plus, with reinvestment and retraining in professions are already happening thanks to tech advancements. It’s like holding your breath for the speed part
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drgeraldstein said:
I agree with the urgency, Rosaliene. The challenge is partly one of prioritization when there are so many other urgent concerns including survival in the moment. I hope there are persuasive visionaries to lead the needed and sometimes painful changes. Thanks for this, as always.
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Rosaliene Bacchus said:
So true, Dr. Stein. Then again, a lot of our urgent concerns are interconnected.
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Bette A. Stevens said:
Population control is one of those critical discussion points that is always lost along the wayside… When will be ever learn.
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Rosaliene Bacchus said:
Bette, I share your concern about the need for population control. The IEA Roadmap merely reflects projected population growth by region over the transition period (2020-2050). Such is their confidence that their projected clean energy supplies will fulfill the needs of a continual growing population and economic growth.
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Henry Lewis said:
Thanks, Rosaliene, for your continuing activism. One thing seems certain, we can’t wait for the ‘grand old party’ (far too old, too white and too wedded to oil) to do the right thing when it comes to driving the death nail into the fossil fuel industry. Sadly, I fear the same is true for much of the GOP opposition as well.
It seems to me that the charge toward a world that is both more habitable and equitable must be consumer driven via education. Imagine reality TV shows where the participants compete to see whose lifestyle is more carbon neutral. For any significant portion of the IEA NZE 2050 roadmap to become a reality, we will need all hands (and minds) on deck.
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Rosaliene Bacchus said:
Henry, thanks for adding your voice. Sadly, as you’ve noted, our government representatives who are “too wedded to oil” hinder our speedy transition to widespread clean energy use. In their NZE Roadmap, the IEA also emphasizes the important role of consumers, noting their relationships with both suppliers and governments. Education is a must.
“Behavioural changes made by citizens and companies play a roughly equal role in reducing emissions in the NZE…. However, a simple distinction between the role for individuals and companies masks a complex underlying dynamic: it is ultimately citizens as consumers of energy‐related goods and services who shape corporate strategies, but at the same time companies do much to influence and generate consumer demand through marketing and advertising. In the NZE,
consumers and companies move together in adopting behavioural changes, with governments setting the direction of those changes and facilitating them via effective and sustained policy support.” (Chapter 4, p.174)
I can well imagine all forms of reality TV shows 🙂 Tik Tok, with its influence among our youth, could lead the way.
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JoAnna said:
Thank you for continuing to show us this sobering reality. It helps to know that, “The transition to net zero will create 14 million new jobs by 2030.” it would be good if we could move that transition along. It seems there is more hope of that possibility since the November election.
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Rosaliene Bacchus said:
JoAnna, it would, indeed, be good if we could move ahead with the transition. It’s sad to observe that the opposition party has not approved Biden’s infrastructure plan.
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JoAnna said:
The opposition does surprise me. I believe our new administration will persist in working for positive changes.
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theburningheart said:
Leaving the World on the hands of Humans, it’s like a sure way to screw up things.
The Holocene extinction, otherwise referred to as the sixth mass extinction or Anthropocene extinction, is an ongoing extinction event of species during the present Holocene epoch (with the more recent time sometimes called Anthropocene) as a result of human activity. 😦
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Rosaliene Bacchus said:
And we humans have sure made a mess of things! We believed that we could consume the gifts of Earth without responsibility for its conservation and preservation.
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DutchIl said:
Thank you for sharing!!.. no matter the issue, the leadership can make all kinds of statements and plans, but it is up to the people to make the difference… to make minor changes in their living habits and the way they do things… nothing will change as long as mankind denies change… 🙂
“Change will not come if we wait for some other person, or if we wait for some other time. We are the ones we’ve been waiting for. We are the change that we seek.” ―( Barack Obama )…. 🙂
Until we meet again..
May your day be touched
by a bit of Irish luck,
Brightened by a song
in your heart,
And warmed by the smiles
of people you love.
(Irish Saying)
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Rosaliene Bacchus said:
So true, Dutch. Thanks for adding your voice 🙂
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cigarman501 said:
Humans seem to ruin all we touch!
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Rosaliene Bacchus said:
We sure do, Don! Human arrogance at its worst.
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da-AL said:
great important post as always, Rosaliene
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Rosaliene Bacchus said:
Thanks very much, da-AL 🙂 Change is in the wind.
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R.H. (Rusty) Foerger said:
I agree that “Embracing the IEA NZE 2050 roadmap demands that we not only change our individual behavior, but also the way we view ourselves as a species on a shared planet.” In a way “we” humans have not counted the cost of anything – least of all – the cost of becoming sustainable within our shared planet – within each ecosystem. My personal sacrifice, though helpful, may count for little in a culture of exploitation. But sacrifice we must.
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Rosaliene Bacchus said:
Thanks for sharing your thoughts, Rusty. Waiting for the worse to happen before we humans take collective action would be a recipe for disaster.
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R.H. (Rusty) Foerger said:
I agree, and am afraid that this “waiting till the next person, the next nation, till China agrees before I will” is not a good strategy. We start with “me” till we gather as “we”.
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ashiftinconsciousness said:
Great post.
It’s SO important for many more people to understand just how dangerously irresponsible we’ve been for so long. We’ve literally been suicidal in our communal ignorance of the facts facing our survival. The planet will go on, but we will not if we continue to refuse to act with cooperation and compassion instead of mindless greed, fear, apathy and ignorance.
Thank you for helping educate people on such an important issue.
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Rosaliene Bacchus said:
Glad that you like my article, Shift 🙂 We humans are so shortsighted!
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ashiftinconsciousness said:
Yes, incredibly shortsighted. It’s very sad. Hopefully things change soon. (My replies are usually late because of living in a remote mountain village with no wifi. ) 😀
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Rosaliene Bacchus said:
No problem. I hope that you’re breathing easier now.
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ashiftinconsciousness said:
I’m still in the same situation. I love the city of La Paz but can’t breathe there. And I honestly don’t like the region of South Yungas, but that’s where I have temporary shelter and can breathe reasonably well.
I’ve written a lot about my experiences the past 16 months or so, but most of what I’d like to post is accompanied by photos. And I’m having difficulty putting my own photos into the posts. I guess the process has been made difficult because I have a free plan. I’ll keep trying.
Thanks for reading my blog. I appreciate it. I will be able to publish more once I leave this area.as well as read more of other peoples’ writing.
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Rosaliene Bacchus said:
I’m glad to hear that you’re breathing better now 🙂 I look forward to learning more about your experiences and checking out your photos.
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Rebecca Cuningham said:
I remember my Chemistry teacher in 1984 talking about pollution and greenhouse gases in our atmosphere. I thought we’d have figured out how to do things differently by now. I hope that more people working from home permanently will have good effects. We need global think tanks to solve the numerous challenges.
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Rosaliene Bacchus said:
Rebecca, I also figured we the people of Earth would have taken action to avoid our current climate crisis. Sad to say, the fossil fuel industry won the battle in spreading doubt and denial.
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Rebecca Cuningham said:
Reminds me of the Lorax. We all win or we all lose. We can’t eat money or drink money as they say.
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