An update of events following my blog article, “Guyana-Venezuela Border Dispute: Mounting Tensions December 2023,” published on December 10, 2023

What a relief! Venezuela did not invade Guyana’s Essequibo Region. After meeting with Guyanese President Irfaan Ali on December 14, 2023, in Argyle, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro agreed not to threaten or use force against Guyana. In the Joint Declaration of Argyle for Dialogue and Peace, the two leaders “committed to the pursuance of good neighborliness, peaceful coexistence, and the unity of Latin America and the Caribbean.”

To clarify a sticking point for the two parties, the Declaration also noted:

“Noted Guyana’s assertion that it is committed to the process and procedures of the International Court of Justice for the resolution of the border controversy. Noted Venezuela’s assertion of its lack of consent and lack of recognition of the International Court of Justice and its jurisdiction in the border controversy.”

Guyana received lots of support from member nations of the Caribbean Community and Latin America. In addition to the Prime Minister of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, the main Interlocutors at the meeting included the Personal Envoy of Brazil’s President Inácio Lula da Silva, Prime Minister of Dominica and Chairman of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), President of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC). Also present were CARICOM Prime Ministers of The Bahamas, Barbados, Grenada, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, and Trinidad & Tobago. Other Latin American participants represented Colombia and Honduras. Two representatives from the United Nations attended as Observers.

Pleased with the results of the meeting, President Maduro shared a copy of the Argyle Declaration on X, formerly Twitter, and added:

“Excellent day of dialogue! We did it!”

Four days later, with the Venezuelan military threat averted, David Rutley, the British Minister for the Americas, Caribbean and Overseas Territories, met with President Ali in Georgetown, Guyana, to reaffirm the UK’s support. Minister Rutley said:

“I am in Guyana, a fellow Commonwealth member, to offer the UK’s unequivocal backing to our Guyanese friends. The border issue has been settled for over 120 years. Sovereign borders must be respected wherever they are in the world. We welcome the recent agreement by Venezuela in St Vincent to refrain from the use of force and any further escalation. The UK will continue to work with partners in the region, as well as through international bodies, to ensure the territorial integrity of Guyana is upheld.”

The Minister was also scheduled to meet with Ambassadors from the United States, Canada, and the European Union, as well as the Secretary-General of the Caribbean Community, headquartered in Guyana.

Tensions with Venezuela flared up again five days later when the British Ministry of Defence confirmed that the HMS Trent would take part in joint exercises with the Guyana Defence Force after Christmas. As reported in a BBC article by James Landale on December 23rd, a British Ministry of Defense spokesperson told the BBC:

“HMS Trent will visit regional ally and Commonwealth partner Guyana later this month as part of a series of engagements in the region during her Atlantic Patrol Task deployment.”

Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron said the UK would “continue to work with partners in the region to ensure the territorial integrity of Guyana is upheld and prevent escalation.”

An offshore patrol vessel, the HMS Trent has a crew of 65, a top speed of 24 knots and a range of 5,000 nautical miles. With a contingent of Royal Marines, it is armed with 30mm cannon and can deploy Merlin helicopters and unmanned aircraft.

According to a Guyana’s Stabroek News report on December 31st, the HMS Trent arrived in Guyana on Friday, December 29, 2023. It’s not clear how long the vessel remained offshore for joint exercises.

Condemning the presence of the British vessel as a military threat and British provocation, Venezuelan President Maduro declared the act “a breach of the Argyle Agreement” signed on December 14th. On Thursday, December 28th, he ordered the deployment of 5,000 Venezuelan troops for military exercises on the Atlantic coast.

During a year-end ceremony with officials from the Bolivarian National Armed Forces (FANB), Maduro said:

“Venezuela will not stand idle in the face of any threat, no matter where it comes from. We do not accept provocations. Venezuela has the right to defend its integrity…. We are responding proportionally to the threats: today, we have issued a statement, and we reserve all actions to defend Venezuela’s sovereign areas.”

The presence of the HMS Trent in the region did not go unnoticed in Mexico City. Alejandro Moreno Cárdenas, President of the Permanent Conference of Political Parties of Latin America and the Caribbean (COPPAL), expressed concern over the presence of the British military vessel. Considering it a hostile act of provocation, he called on the intervention of the United Nations and its Secretary-General António Guterres to rule on the British military presence as a violation of the Treaty of Tlatelolco which defined Latin America and the Caribbean as a region of peace. He called on the British government to withdraw the warship.

If you’re like me and have never heard of the 2002 Treaty of Tlatelolco, you can learn more here.

Just as tensions had subsided between Guyana and Venezuela, following the departure of the HMS Trent (exact date unknown), the U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (DASD) for the Western Hemisphere at the U.S. Department of Defense, Daniel P. Erikson, arrived in Georgetown, Guyana, for a two-day visit on January 8 to 9, 2024. DASD Erikson is responsible for U.S. defense and security policy for the 34-nation region that encompasses Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central and South America.

He was scheduled to meet with the Government of Guyana, the Guyana Defence Force, and CARICOM leaders to discuss the U.S. defense and security partnership with Guyana and regional partners.

As published in an Associated Press article by Bert Wilkinson on January 10th, DASD Erikson told reporters that Guyana is seeking to modernize its defense capabilities. Part of the talks focused on scope and capability, as well as cybersecurity.

“One thing of great interest to us is ensuring that as Guyana looks to increase its defense capacities, it does so through a plan that is strategic, nested in its overall defense institutions, and sustainable over time.”

Given President Maduro’s concern about a permanent U.S. military base in Guyana, expressed during the Argyle meeting on December 14th, Guyanese government officials had to make their position clear to avoid escalating tensions. On Thursday, January 11th, following the end of DASD Erikson’s visit, Guyanese Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo told the Associated Press:

“We have not been approached by the United States to establish a military base in Guyana.”

Such is now the nature of peaceful coexistence between Guyana and its neighbor Venezuela. Any action in strengthening its defense against the more powerful aggressor is perceived as a threat with repercussions. Only time will tell what could trigger yet another threat to the Venezuelan government under President Nicolás Maduro.

With proven oil and gas reserves of more than 11 billion oil-equivalent barrels, Guyana now ranks among the world’s largest per capita oil producers. What a prize for all parties involved in this territorial conflict!