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Cliodynamics, Elite Overproduction, End Times: Elites Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration by Peter Turchin (USA 2023), Popular Immiseration, Societies in Crisis
Photo Credit: Penguin Random House (2023)
To understand why Donald Trump became the forty-fifth president of the United States, we should also pay less attention to his personal qualities and maneuvers and more to the deep social forces that propelled him to the top. Trump was like a small boat caught on the crest of a mighty tidal wave. The two most important social forces that gave us the Trump presidency—and pushed America to the brink of state breakdown—are elite overproduction and popular immiseration….
[First, by 2016] a large proportion of Americans who felt left behind voted for an unlikely candidate—a billionaire. For many of them, this was not so much an endorsement of Trump as an expression of their discontent, shading into rage, against the ruling class.
Second, by 2016, the elite overproduction game had reached a bifurcation point where the rules of conduct in political campaigns had been tossed to the wind.
Excerpt from End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration by Peter Turchin, Penguin Random House, New York, USA, 2023 (pp. 13-14).
Footnotes
Elite Overproduction occurs when the number of elites among the top One Percent far exceeds the number of available power positions.
Popular Immiseration occurs when workers face years of wage stagnation and decline while the rich get richer. In the USA, “deaths of despair” from suicide, alcoholism, and drug overdose spiked among the noncollege-educated during the period 2000 to 2016.
Peter Turchin is a project leader at the Complexity Science Hub Vienna, a research associate at the University of Oxford, and an emeritus professor at the University of Connecticut. Trained as a theoretical biologist, he is now working in the field of historical social science that he and his colleagues call cliodynamics. Currently, his main research effort is directed at coordinating CrisisDB, a massive historical database of societies sliding into crisis—and then emerging from it. His books include Ultrasociety (2016) and Ages of Discord (2016).
Three Worlds One Vision 
In England, too, many people are deeply unhappy with their political leaders who live their lives nothing like they do and face none of the same day-to-day difficulties.
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John, based on the historical record of the collapse of past societies/empires, Turchin notes that “when large swaths of the population experience falling living standards, this undermines the legitimacy of our institutions and thus weakens the state.” (p. 81)
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One other thing that ordinary people can also see is the low standard of our politicians nowadays. And the time they spend shouting at each other.
It’s a little bit like “Punch and Judy pilot the Titanic”.
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Britain has lost direction and none of the parties serve the people. We need to get people back to work. I mean the people of Britain need to become self-sufficient and not so reliant on others. The Government is serving itself rather than us but if we the people took back control they would need to work for us to earn their pay.
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So very true – the demise of democracy which can only benefit dictators – as we are seeing
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Derrick, the day that the corporation gained personhood here in the USA, the economic elites have succeeded in hijacking what was left of our democracy.
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The reasons given are certainly not wrong, but they fall short (perhaps the book goes into more detail about this). Because major reasons were undoubtedly also:
The rise of fake news on social media platforms like Facebook.
Low voter turnover, especially among Democrats.
Trump’s celebrity status and media savvy.
White women and men’s resentment.
Russia’s interference in the election…
Populists know how to appear to be standing up for the “common man” and to create and exploit an “us versus them” feeling. (MAGA)
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Exactly! People like Trump are very adept at putting a finger on the pulse of the voting group they are pursuing, then saying all the things that will resonate with each side feeling validated by the other, and they develop their sense of truth through their interactions. Since no one holds up a hand saying “Enough!”, it continues to devolve, each one propelled to be more outrageous, for that’s what gets the click and views, making them viral.
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Tamara, it’s distressing to observe how we humans can be so easily manipulated by algorithms on social media platforms. The collapse of earlier societies analyzed by Turchin and other cliodynamicists did not have to deal with such virtual social networks. In his segment on “How Civil Wars Start,” Turchin notes that “the advent of the internet, the massive adoption of smartphones, and the rise of social media” is numbered among the causes of political instability. “[T]he algorithms of social media serve as “accelerants” for violence by promoting a sense of perpetual crisis, a feeling of growing despair, and a perception that moderates have failed.” (p. 170)
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Social media works fast but in the past gossip and neighborly chatting spread information, rumors or lies seemingly almost as quickly. Unfortunately humans have always been manipulable, whether by community leaders or politicians. Seeking to belong to a group and be approved by the group causes many to turn a blind eye to things they might ordinarily question.
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Very true.
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Friedrich, Turchin notes in the preface of his book that “There are indeed “hidden forces” pushing America to the brink of civil war–and possibly beyond…. [But] the bulk of what we need to know has nothing to do with the shenanigans of evil or corrupt individuals. Instead, we need to look to the widely agreed-upon Big Data about wages, taxes, gross domestic products, and sociological surveys churned out by government agencies and organizations like Gallup…. My narrative is an effort to explain how impersonal social forces push societies to the brink of collapse and beyond.” (pp xii-xiii)
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…so interesting, this thread and this book. I renounced my citizenship in 1968 and have been a Canadian for 55 years. As a young child, my mother intentionally took me to the funeral of one of the last Civil War veterans–IOW, it wasn’t that long ago. And the lessons unlearned from that atrocious national bloodbath are legion. The so-called ‘Restoration’ restored little, if anything, leaving a country with gaping psychological/emotional/dissonances to fester and stew for 150+ years–feeding on cherished prejudices and mentally refighting those causes–and doing little to resolve what the killing certainly didn’t.
And now? Now we have citizens allowed to ‘bear arms’ when attending church on Sunday and while strolling with their children through Christmas Villages. It takes only one megalomania (ala Joe McCarthy) to stoke old smoldering embers and fan them into an alarming flame.
(….of course, IMHO!) — just my subjective generalizations, benefitting from being able to ‘look in’ as an expatriate.
Thank you for creating a very civil discussion on very sensitive issues!
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Lance, thanks for sharing your thoughts and for your kind closing remark 🙂
Turchin writes a lot about the American Civil War and its aftermath, Reconstruction, in the formation of the American ruling class. He notes that, “before the Civil War, the United States was ruled by a coalition of Southern slaveholders and Northeastern merchant patricians. The defeat of the South in the Civil War destroyed this ruling class…. Although the Civil War freed the slaves, it utterly failed to produce racial equality. The main effect was thus the revolution at the top: the turnover of the elites. After the power of the Southern slaveholding elites over the federal government was decisively broken, they were replaced by a new ruling class dominated by Northern businessmen.” (pp. 119-120)
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Yes – I remember studying this phenomenon in History the rise and fall of all systems of government: Monarchy deteriorates to Tyranny; Aristocracy to Oligarchy; Democracy to Plutocracy … all because someone(s) takes their eyes off the ball; enjoys the power too much & wants more; gets too greedy; and/or any other vice(s) to excess. And so the cycle continues. Thanks for the timely reminder.
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Well summed up, Antsimon. You may find Turchin’s book of interest. Cliodynamics employs mathematical models, using Big Data of the historical record, to analyze how earlier societies slid into political crises and then emerged from them, with variable degrees of success.
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Those sound like major contributing factors, Rosaliene. Thank you for calling attention to the book.
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Dr. Stein, Turchin’s analysis of the collapse of earlier societies, using complex Big Data available of the historical record, is a fascinating read and offers new insights on how we in America has come to this point of total dysfunction in Washington DC. Turchin does not offer any prediction about how our age of discord is going to end. He notes: “The history of the future hasn’t been written yet. What we do know is that the twin forces pushing America into civil war–immiseration and elite overproduction–continue unabated as of 2022.” (p. 27)
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Rosaliene, Trump has spent much of his life in the limelight, building name recognition. Ronald Reagan did the same. I’m currently going through old newspapers, including 2016 copies of the “New York Times” before the 2016 election. There were glowing stories about Hillary Clinton’s fascination with live theatre on Broadway. Early in 2017, there was extensive coverage of the lead-up to Trump’s inauguration, and the organization of protesters, like a women’s group of investors from New York, who planned a march outside the mall grounds.
There were centerfold photos of the Washington Mall, where the inauguration was held. Captions commented that the crowd was much smaller than Obama’s crowd had been, but the day of Trump’s inauguration was rainy and chilly.
I also have back issues of the NYT from early 2020, including the January 6 protests. In 2020, the “pandemic” was the focus.
Since 2020, we have seen how the wheel turns. The “pandemic” has faded from the front page, as the US gears up for new wars in the middle-east. The “Biden team” and Congress have passively participated in supporting Israel through massive defense/offense spending, as Ukraine is left to fend for itself.
When I was a reporter, then editor, of a small weekly newspaper in Colorado, I met a man who was interested in buying the paper. He stated newspapers stay put, meaning they don’t change with changing circumstances. Advertising there remains valid, for instance.
My point is that print media has a lasting impact, and attitudes reveal themselves long after the words have been forgotten or have changed.
I’m no fan of Trump, but I see why he would appeal to those who feel they have no voice in government. He is and has been a game-changer. Even the media’s persecution of him now feeds his talent for turning adversity to advantage.
The NYT is biased, and its priorities show in news, editorials, advertising, and what it sees “fit to print”. Trump was born in a borough of New York, in Queens, and worked for his father in real estate development, so he knows how the city and state operate. It’s clear that the NYT doesn’t like him, but “Team Biden” is sinking its own ship. Whether the US will survive the next election intact remains to be seen.
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Great points. And I sure agree.
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Katharine, thanks for reminding us of the role of the media in controlling the narrative. In Chapter 1, Turchin describes “Who Are the Elites? Sources of Social Power.” He notes that the fourth and “softest” kind of power is ideological–the power of persuasion. “Soft power, or persuasion, is an extremely potent force that can sway multitudes. It includes the realm of thought influencers, such as famous “public intellectuals,” columnists at major newspapers, and, more recently, social media figures with millions of followers.” (p. 5).
The New York Times is definitely well-placed to signal “who’s in” and “who’s out.” Trump, both an “aspiring” and “counter-elite,” has learned how to beat them at their own game.
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We shall see how it plays out. At least Trump is entertaining. Also, the Southwestern border of the US is getting lots of attention, with Texas taking enforcement of the border into its own hands.
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A man who has always been able to get away with anything is a dangerous man to have in charge. Many nations over time have seen his equal. I just can not understand why the attraction gets stronger as the crimes build. If politicians could only do the right thing for all people and not just their buddies, it might work out better. Picking with your team and sticking with your team no matter what is seldom a good idea. People need to be more pragmatic when evaluating how the country should be run. Have a great Sunday Rosaliene. Allan
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Allan, as I understand our current situation after reading Turchin’s book, Trump is an “elite aspirant” who seeks a position among the top One Percent economic power elite. He is prepared to bend and stretch the rules to get there. Some of our politicians are also elite aspirants who are prepared to do whatever the economic power elite dictate to retain their seat of administrative power. We the people have little say in this game.
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Trump is bad, bad news. He’s a power-crazy fascist who loves lying through his teeth. The damage he has caused is almost immeasurable.
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He sure is, Neil. His ability to wield so much power over his political opponents indicates weaknesses in our political system. Turchin makes it clear that it’s not a conspiracy theory that the USA is a plutocracy. In other words, we’re a nation dominated by the economic elites (p. 124-125).
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While I agree with Turchin’s analysis, I’m nevertheless inclined to believe that Trump wouldn’t have won in 2016 if the Democrats had nominated a more charismatic and sympathetic (for want of a better word) Presidential candidate than Hillary Clinton. As for 2024, Democrats may need a younger and more dynamic candidate than Biden to beat Trump (this is an indictment of the times we live in, not of Biden). Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem to be in the cards, so our best hope is for the Joker (Trump) to be in jail before the election. Many Republicans would still vote for him, but the latest poll shows (I don’t recall the exact numbers) far fewer of them would do so — enough to save the day (if we’re lucky).
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MisterMuse, I agree with your comment about our 2016 unpopular Democratic presidential candidate. Given that the corporate elites in control are the ones who decide who our candidate should be, those of us who favored another candidate had no voice. Moreover, they have also decided that Biden is the best candidate to beat Trump. Meanwhile, our European allies are concerned about their security with Trump at the helm again.
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I’m not sure I agree with the elite analysis. America has always been ruled by elites. Maybe less so today than in the past. Trump seems to be the epitome of elitism and the notion that some should be above reproach no matter how badly they behave. Trump’s appeal may be as simple as white replacement which is at the heart of much of his rhetoric. Race, I believe, was the fundamental issue of the American Civil War not “states rights,” unless that is a euphemism for the right of states to maintain an economic system based on legalized white supremacy.
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John, you raise a very important issue that Turchin addresses in his chapter “Why is America a Plutocracy?” Here’s what he said about the role of race and ethnicity in the rise of the American plutocracy before and after the Civil War:
“Race has been one of the most important issues in American politics, all the way from its beginnings to this very day. Because of its importance, it has been hugely politicized and ideologized. Although…the Democratic Party of the FDR period can be thought of as a party of the working class, we must add an important qualification. It was a party of the white working class. In order to push his agenda through, FDR had to make a devil’s bargain with the Southern elites, which essentially made the South immune from the tripartite bargain among workers, business, and government that the FDR administration forged. In particular, the segregationist regime in the South was left untouched. Black workers, especially in the South, were excluded from the social contract of the New Deal.” (pp. 142-143)
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Thanks for sharing this. I need to read Turchin’s book to get a good understanding of where he’s coming from.
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You’re welcome, John. There are several interviews with Turchin available on YouTube that you may find of interest.
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The qualities of 45 are so bizarre and crass, they distract from these important issues of how he came to power. I still have trouble understanding how his qualities can be overlooked by so many, but we do need to look deeper into the conditions that let it happen. I wonder if there’s a summary of what we can do to try to fix/heal our broken system. Addressing poverty of course is one issue.
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JoAnna, I’ve observed that far too many of us get caught up in his oversized personality that we lose perspective of what’s driving the fierce loyalty of his followers. I see no way of fixing our broken system, here in the USA and worldwide, if we-the-people are not prepared to address the fallacies of our globalized capitalist economic system.
After two years of intensive research of the major factors affecting societal collapse worldwide, Jem Bendell has concluded that humanity is past fixing/healing our broken systems. Societal collapse is already underway. He presents his findings and proposals for moving forward in his latest book “Breaking Together: A Freedom-Loving Response to Collapse” (UK, 2023). You can learn more through his WordPress website/blog at https://jembendell.com/
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Thanks for the clarification, Rosaliene. I never thought I’d think this, but I can see that possibility. I’ll take a look.
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You’re welcome, JoAnna.
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I found this somewhat hopeful and intriguing: “…this book provides essential wisdom on the necessity of staying engaged politically and socially, whilst attending to the toxic psycho-social patterns that need healing if we are to retain dignity and justice in the coming years.” Katie Carr, Deep Adaptation Forum. Thank you for opening the door, Rosaliene.
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So glad you checked out Bendell’s website, JoAnna. I have yet to figure out how to share his findings set out in “Breaking Together,” without causing distress. As I see it, denial of mounting evidence of our predicament as a species only cripples our ability to respond in meaningful ways.
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We do have to admit there’s an enormous problem. I’d like to know more about how to respond in meaningful ways (in addition to reduce, reuse, recycle and writing to our congress people.)
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JoAnna, you could connect with the Deep Adaptation Forum [https://www.deepadaptation.info], of which Bendell is a part, and choose how best you can engage.
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Thank you!
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You’re welcome 🙂
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Thanks for sharing this idea. Anita
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You’re welcome, Anita.
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An ominous title that seems fitting, given the subject matter. Thank you for this informative book share, Rosaliene.
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Michele, publishers love titles that grab the attention of readers. The title does not refer to America’s end times, but refers to the impersonal social forces that push societies to the brink of collapse, based on the historical record. I found it informative and insightful.
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Yes, it seems so, strolling through any bookstore. It is understandable and your book suggestion sounds interesting.
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Thanks, Michele.
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Welcome. 🌻
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And today Trump aligns himself with Putin, Orban & Kim Jong-un possibly the world’s most dangerous dictators today! Or is that just fake news?
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Ashley, he has indeed openly expressed admiration for these men. On the other hand, what he said yesterday may not be true for tomorrow.
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Rosaliene, when I first read the news report from New Hampshire, I was shocked, I couldn’t believe that a Presidential hopeful (an ex President) could actually say those things, so I checked it out over several news platforms. Unbelievable!
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I saw today that he is barred from Colorado’s 2024 ballot by rule of their state Supreme Court. It will probably go to the Supreme Court.
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Thanks for the update, Crystal. This situation is so incomprehensible to me. How can a person facing several criminal indictments be eligible as a presidential candidate in a democratic country? Where are the safeguards in our political system?
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It’s nuts.
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It sure is, Crystal.
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Added the book on my TBR list! I’m glad to see people taking a deep dive in examining why Trump became president and leave no stone unturned
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Turchin’s book is well worth reading, Claire. Until reading his book, I was unaware of this new interdisciplinary science of history known as cliodynamics. “It assembles the huge body of knowledge collected by professional historians and then uses it in an objective scientific way.” (p. 294)
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There’s no better way to realize that those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Whenever I read historical novels and notice the dynamics between people at that time, I realize that some things never change
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Thanks for introducing us to this important book Rosaliene. I look forward to reading it and making some sense of the dire situation we’re in. It’s especially interesting that the author uses math to examine how historical patterns relate to what’s going on now.
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You’re welcome, Mara. It’s amazing what our computers can achieve these days in analyzing the vast and complex historical database.
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Thank you for sharing!!.. interesting book!.. believe it comes down to the people he carters to, and their self-centered mindset, as they are looking for someone to tell them what they wish to believe and want.. “birds of like feather flock together”, and some vote for him out of fear with the social environment they are in…. 🙂
Hope you and your family have a safe and pleasant holiday and until we meet again…
May flowers always line your path
and sunshine light your way,
May songbirds serenade your
every step along the way,
May a rainbow run beside you
in a sky that’s always blue,
And may happiness fill your heart
each day your whole life through.
May the sun shine all day long
Everything go right, nothing go wrong
May those you love bring love back to you
And may all the wishes you wish come true
(Irish Saying)
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Thanks for dropping by and sharing your thoughts, Dutch 🙂
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I follow the news. It is often distressing. The explanations given for the threats to democracy as stated in this article logical. I watched a PBS documentary with Judy Woodruff on the same subject today. Many pundits on YouTube seem to agree. Vote, wait, and hope! What else can we do?
Thank you for this thoughtful post, Rosaliene! ❤ Merry Christmas, Rosaliene. Peace and joy to you and yours in 2024!
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Thanks very much, Cheryl 🙂 ❤
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A beautiful song… Merry Christmas, Rosaliene!
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Thanks very much, Dwight 🙂
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You are welcome.
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I’m late to this discussion, Rosaliene, but wanted to thank you for putting this on my radar. Just subscribed to Jem Bendell’s blog and am glad to learn more. Capitalism is literally killing us, but do we have the resolve to break free from those chains?
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Tracy, as I see it, those who benefit from the spoils of the system have no desire for change. As individuals, we can break free at any time by changing our consumer-oriented lifestyle and our relationship with each other and Mother Earth.
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Unfortunately, I see it the way you see it, Rosaliene. Those in power fight to maintain the status quo and it’ll take our will to collectively break those chains. In the meantime, we can buy less and spend more time in nature which is my preference, anyway.
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Tracy, check out the Deep Adaptation Forum at https://www.deepadaptation.info/ to connect with people, “in all spheres of life, to foster mutual support and collaboration in the process of anticipating, observing, and experiencing societal disruption and collapse.”
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Thank you for this! Just signed up and look forward to reading more. ❤️
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You’re welcome. Excellent!
By the way, I’m learning a lot about building community in “Let This Radicalize You.” Their following observation resonated with me: “We also know this: hope and grief can coexist, and if we wish to transform the world, we must learn to hold and to process both simultaneously. That process will, as ever, involve reaching for community” (p. 151).
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Oh, I LOVE “Let This Radicalize You” and am so glad it’s resonating with you. I highlighted A LOT of my copy. 🙂
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Thank you for highlighting this important book Rosaliene. ꧁꧂𝘏𝓪𝒑𝒑𝕪 Ņệ𝜔 Ⲩệ𝓪Г꧁꧂
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You’re welcome, Cindy 🙂
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